A Decade Later, Are We In Another Tech Bubble?

Lots of people are buzzing lately that we're in another "dotcom" bubble, roughly ten years after the last one. In mid-November, noted New York venture capitalist Fred Wilson described some "storm clouds" ahead for the tech investing space. He described what he sees as some unsustainable "talent" and "valuation" bubbles. This was around the time of the TechCrunch story about the engineer that Google gave $3.5 million to stick around. Not too long after that, Jason Calacanis of Mahalo fame wrote a brilliant edition of his email newsletter in which he outlined four tech bubbles he sees right now: an angel bubble (similar to Wilson's valuation bubble), a talent bubble, an incubator bubble (new firms cropping up to try and copy the successes of YCombinator and TechStars), and a stock market bubble.

And the frothy news just keeps on coming: Groupon this week allegedly turned down a $6 billion acquisition offer from Google (yes, that number has nine zeros and three commas in it [1]). Oh, and also, the Second Market value of Facebook is about $41 billion. That makes it #3 in the web space after Amazon and Google.

And, finally, there was this hilarious and depressing tweet going around yesterday from @ramparte:

But for me the proof was in two recent encounters with people decidedly not in the tech industry: my accountant and my banker. Each of them, upon learning what I do for a living, started talking to me about their tech business ideas. One was intriguing, one was, shall we say, vague, but everywhere I turn these days I feel like someone's trying to pitch me on their idea for a social network, a mobile application, or whatever. And who am I? I'm a nobody. Can you imagine how many pitches people like Fred Wilson and Jason Calacanis get? It must be absurd. And in any case, what most of these folks don't realize is that the idea is about 5% of a successful business. The remaining 95% is laser focus and nimble execution.

I feel lucky to be in technology right now--the economy is so crappy for almost everyone else. And that's got to be one of the driving factors of this bubble right now. It's one of the only healthy industries out there, and it's attracting people who are disenchanted with whatever sick industry they happen to be in. Other driving factors of course are the recent explosive growth in mobile computing, the maturation of the web development space (frameworks like Ruby on Rails and Django that make web app development almost frictionless), and the rise of APIs and web services that allow vastly different sites to integrate their offerings.

It's as if all the fishermen in the world have descended on one supremely awesome spot. A lot of people will catch a fish or two, some will catch enough that they'll never have to fish again, but most won't catch a thing.

[1] If anyone ever offers me $6 billion dollars for anything, please remind me not to turn them down.

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